ACUS01 KWNS 271631

SWODY1

SPC AC 271630



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017



Valid 271630Z - 281200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE

MID-SOUTH AND TN RIVER VALLEY...



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF

MS/AL TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE

MIDDLE OH VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the

Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Tennessee Valley this

afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple

tornadoes will be possible.



...Lower Ohio/Mississippi River Valleys and Tennessee Valley...

A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern MO late this

morning will continue generally eastward and reach the middle OH

River Valley by late tonight. A preceding belt of 40-50 kt

west-southwesterly mid level winds will continue to overspread an

increasingly moist, albeit modestly so, warm sector. Ahead of an

eastward-moving cold front currently across the Ozarks and

Ark-La-Tex, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints will continue

to become increasingly common across eastern AR, northern MS into

western TN, northward into western KY. While warm-sector cloud cover

has remained semi-prevalent thus far, some cloud breaks are noted in

visible satellite imagery an additional thinning seems likely in

concert especially with the eastward-spread mid/high-level dry slot

as per water vapor satellite imagery.



Linearly organized convection across far northeast AR/far southeast

MO late this morning should continue to spread east-northeastward

and increase in coverage/intensify into northwest TN and

western/central KY as the downstream air mass continues to moisten

and destabilize. T